Natural Risk Management

The exam used to be oral, but is written since 2025.

Professor Kervyn is very friendly on the exam. There are a lot of possible questions, you have to pick two questions from a stack of at least 40 questions. The assistant checks whether the questions you took are not too much alike. He keeps asking side questions that are increasingly detailed, even if you already showed that you know your stuff, he will keep asking. He tells afterwards if it was ok or not. You also get the points from the assignments, which is nice :)

Course Information

Courses and exams
Prof	Kervyn De Meerendre Matthieu
Courses	Lectures and seminars
Examination	Partial or continuous assessment with (final) exam during the examination period
Background
Credits	3
When?	2nd semester
ECTS	Link

2025

June

03/06/2025

1. Explain these concepts in detail and give an example if needed: exposure, risk transfer, social vulnerability index, return period of a Hazard 2.
2. Explain 4 underlying pressures that increase the vulnerabilty of explain with a case study
3. What is preparedness, what are 5 essential steps to increase the preparedness of a community and give an example of when a hazard occured and they were not enough prepared
4. From your own case study: which actors are important, and why is it possible that conflict arise?

20/06/2025

1. Explain these concepts in detail and give an example if needed: root causes of disaster, Sendai framework for drr, intensity, early warning system.
2. What is the risk equation. Define each component and give a risk where each component is present and how you could decrese the risk per component.
3. You have to make your own quantitative risk assessment: give each step, say what data and methods to use and give the output.
4. In making vulnerability indexes, what are the key points, assumptions and critique.

2021

June

23/06/2021

1. Explain and give example: pressure and release model
2. Scientific/objective risk assessment and risk perception might lead to different evaluation of the risk. Explain the methodology followed by a scientific risk assessment. Describe, using examples, which factors can contribute to the difference between the perceived and the scientifically-estimated risk?

1. Based on a case Study (group assignment or others), explain how the 4 priorities of the Sendai Framework for DRR could be translated into practical actions to reduce the impact of a similar event in the future
2. Vulnerability is a complex concept that is challenging to apply in practice. Define the concept of vulnerability and explain how you would assess the variation of population vulnerability at national to continental scale. Specify the data, methods and types of outputs of such vulnerability assessment

10/06/2021

1. Underlying factors contribute to the increase of vulnerability. Explain this based upon a case study and explain this with 4 underlying factors (dynamic pressures)
2. What is preparedness? What are necessary steps to enhance preparedness (or something similar)? Can you explain using past disasters what can go wrong?

1. About the DPR-model
2. Explain the spatial scale of the EmDAT database

1. The occurrence of disasters can be interpreted using different paradigms. Using the example of the Corona crisis or another disaster discussed in class, explain how different paradigms would lead to different interpretations of the main causes of the disaster and lead to the prioritization of different risk reduction measures.
2. Explain risk management based on a case study that you can choose.

2020

This exam was open book because of covid.

15/06/2020

1. The occurrence of disasters can be interpreted using different paradigms. Using the example of the Corona crisis or another disaster discussed in class, explain how different paradigms would lead to different interpretations of the main causes of the disaster and lead to the prioritization of different risk reduction measures.
2. Vulnerability is a complex concept that is challenging to apply in practice. Define the concept of vulnerability and explain how you would assess the variation of population vulnerability at national to continental scale. Specify the data, methods and types of outputs of such vulnerability assessment.

1. Based on a Case Study (group assignment or others), explain how the 4 priorities of the Sendai Framework for DRR could be translated into practical actions to reduce the impact of a similar event in the future
2. Explain risk assessment with an example. Explain all phases and what data you would use.
3. Scientific/objective risk assessment and risk perception might lead to different evaluation of the risk. Explain the methodology followed by a scientific risk assessment. Describe, using examples, which factors can contribute to the difference between the perceived and the scientifically-estimated risk?
4. Explain the concept of vulnerability and give 2 ways of assessing it.

2019

• In the last 50 years of disaster analysis, different paradigms were used. Discuss at least three of those paradigms and explain them with a case study. How do they cause conflicts? Oral question: to what paradigm does the Sendai Framework belong?
• What are the possible actors in a crisis management? How does this lead to conflicts? What are solutions? (this was mainly about the discussions sessions. (There was not really a right or wrong answer, you just had to speculate and discuss a little bit).
• Explain risk assessment with an example. Explain all phases and what data you would use.
• Explain at least three ways to research vulnerability (inductive,...)
• What is the methodolody used by EM-DAT as described by CRED?
• Land tenure and land transactions can have an important influence on risk of households. Explain with the case study. (guest lecture about landslides in Uganda)

2018

• What is the follow-up of the Hyogo framework? What are the differences between this and the Hyogo framework? What does this framework represent and what are its key priorities? Link disaster paradigms with these frameworks and their priorities.
• What is the use of data in the risk management cycle? Apply to earthquakes.
• What should be done in order to create a reliable disaster dataset? Take the method from CRED as a reference. What are challenges and limitations concerning the creation of such a dataset? Why is it usefull to create such a dataset?
• Underlying factors contribute to the increase of vulnerability. Explain this based upon a case study and explain this with 4 underlying factors (dynamic pressures).

2017

• Give the definition of Risk and give the equation. Explain all the factors in the equation. Give an example of an hazard/disaster and link this to every factor. Give examples. How can one reduce risk --> all the factors.
• Give all stakholders involved in crisis management. What are the difficulties? How can these be solved?
• You're risk manager of a country, how would you work? (Risk assesment)
• Sendai Priorities?
• risk transfer?
• vulnerability and his components
• acces to resources
• pressure and release model
• preparedness
• What is the function of the european crisis centre, do they have a budget?
• Risk assesment
• EM-Dat
• Explain what factors other than hazard characteristics can influence a household's vulnerability using the access to resources model & explain using an example (suggested was: landslides in Uganda??)
• Discuss 4 approaches to assess/characterise vulnerability. I was talking about VCA and SoVI but he wanted me to tell him about the paper by Hinkel (2011): deductive, inductive, ... etc

2016

1. Explain Magnitude, Intensity and frequeny and link these concepts. What is the Return period and how can this be calculated for floods.
2. Explain the different steps of riks assesment and apply this on a cyclone or earthquake.Which data do you need?

2015

• What are 'natural hazards'? How are they categorized in the EM-DAT? How can you categorize different natural hazards in general? Compare 2 different hazards (temporal, spatial, magnitude, frequency,...)
• What methodology can you use to make a hazard database? Explain for the EM-DAT (inclusion criteria). What are the limitations and challenges of such an approach?
• What is the definition of vulnerability? What are its 4 components? Explain with some examples.
• What are the 4 paradigms of hazards? Explain with examples.
• What is a disaster? On what basis does EM-DAT define an event as a disaster? Why do we use natural hazards, but not natural disasters?
• Suppose that you have yearly peak discharges of a certain river. How to calculate the probability that a flood will happen? Explain this numerical and graphical. What are the limitations of such an approach?

2014

• What is preparedness? What are necessary steps to enhance preparedness (or something similar)? Can you explain using past disasters what can go wrong?
• There are several paradigms of disasters/disaster risk reduction in the 20th century. Compare these and apply three of these on a disaster: what would be the difference in outcome? (again, not literally this question, but something like this.)
• What is the definition of natural hazards? Which type and classification is used by EM-DAT? What are the properties of hazards and explain this by using 2 strongly different type of hazards.
• What is VCA and where is used? How is a VCA carried out? Which methods and tools do they use? Give 3 examples for a specific type of hazard.
• How can we assess the probability of hazards? Explain both numerically and graphically how you would quantify the probability and the return interval of floods, based on data of yearly peak discharge. Highlight the limiting assumption of this method.
• What is risk transfer? What forms does it take? What are the possible perverse effects of this? What can be done to divert risk transfer in a method for DRR? (side question: what are Cat Stocks or something like that? --> Cat bonds probably?)
• Beschreef wat er verstaan wordt onder 'prepardness' en welke zaken om 'prepardness' te verminderen. Toon dit ook aan met een voorbeeld
• Geef de 'numbers' rondom disaster (zie hoofdstuk 2). aantal casualties, cost etc.. en door welke factoren worden deze wijzigingen verklaard?
• Give the definition of Risk and give the equation. Explain all the factors in the equation. Give an example of an hazard/disaster and link this to every factor. Give examples. How can one reduce risk --> all the factors.
• Define disaster. On what basis does EM-DAT define an event as disaster. What are other possibilities/thresholds to do so? Why do we speak of natural hazard but not natural disaster?

Year unknown

• What is exposure? How can it be quantified? What can be done to reduce it?
• Why is exposure still high in hazard-prone areas?
• Did the number of disasters increased or decreased, and what about the other caracteristics (number affected, deaths, damage)?
• Why did they in- or decreased?
• Risk Management cycle: define and explain all the elements, give examples.
• Scientific Risk Assessement: give the different steps and explain? how differs risk perception? What are the influencing factors?
• Extra question: Who is responsible for risk management in Belgium? how is risk management reflected on policy level (-> municipal, provincial and federal)
• Wat is risk? Geef vergelijking van risk. Bespreek alle individuele termen met een voorbeeld, en geef bij elke term ook aan wat je kan doen om de risk te verlagen.
• Wat zijn de drie administratieve niveaus waarop een crisis kan worden behandeld?
• Wat bepaalt op welk niveau er gewerkt wordt of de overgang naar een ander niveau?
• Hoe pakt het Crisis Centrum een crisis op federaal niveau aan, welke verschillende stappen worden ondernomen?
• Risk assessment, wat is het/ hoe werkt het? Leg uit aan de hand van een voorbeeld, namelijk een aardbevingsgevoelig en een cycloongevoelig gebied.
• Belgisch crisiscentrum; structuur? Acties? Wat doen ze voor/tijdens crisis?
• Definition of preparedness, and the steps of it in community, and give the examples of the flaw of it.
• Different paradigms and their different conclusions.
• Social vulnerability en SoVI uitleggen
• Risk assesment. Wat zijn de stappen, wat zijn de producten. Toepassen op aardbeving of cyclone